Saturday, October 2, 2010

Hard-luck Pitchers

Which Giants pitcher started the season 5-0 with a 1.49 ERA through his first six starts? No, not Matt Cain, who went winless in April. No, not Tim Lincecum. (Yes, yes, Lincecum started the year well but was "only" 4-0 through six starts with a slighly higher 1.70 ERA.)

Nope. It was Barry Zito.

It looked like Zito was finally going to be a productive member of the Giants starting rotation. With a win against the Astros on May 16th, the left-hander improved to 6-1 with a 2.15 ERA. He didn't get his seventh win until a month later, when San Francisco beat Oakland 5-4 on June 12th. At that point, Zito was 7-2 with a respectable 3.10 ERA.

And then the wheels fell off.

He was winless in his next five starts with an ERA of 5.79, going 0-2. He could have beaten the Blue Jays in Toronto, when he tossed a complete-game four-hitter. He could have beaten the Dodgers when he pitched six innings of two-run ball. But the Giants offense didn't come through.

Zito then turned it around with a two-hit, 10-strikeout performance against the Mets to win 1-0 on July 16th, ending the five-start winless streak. His numbers were still respectable: 8-4, 3.51.

He was poised for his first winning season in a Giants uniform (he was 11-13, 10-17, and 10-13 in his first three seasons with 'Frisco)... but the offense completely fell apart.

To wit:

July 21st: 7.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 4 SO... but a 2-0 loss in Los Angeles to the Dodgers.
July 26th: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 3 SO... but a 4-3 loss to the Marlins.
July 31st: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 SO... but a no-decision as the Giants beat the Dodgers 2-1.
August 6th: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 10 SO... but another no-decision as the Giants beat the Braves 3-2 in Atlanta.

Five straight quality starts (6+ IP, 3 ER or fewer), including the 1-0 win over the Mets, but four straight games without a win! So in the first week of August, Zito's ERA was 3.35 but he was only 8-6.

Six straight rough outings ensued--including a relief appearance against the Reds--as well as an 0-7 record (with a 6.88 ERA) in his next eight appearances, dropping Zito's season record to 8-13!

In the last two losses, he deserved a better fate:

September 8th: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 7 SO - but a 3-1 loss in Arizona.
September 14th: 6.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 SO - but a 1-0 loss to the Dodgers.

So, 8-13 with a 4.02 ERA on the season.

This afternoon, with the Giants one win away from winning the NL West, they gave the ball to Zito against the second-place Padres in San Fran. The lefty, however, gave up consecutive bases-loaded walks in the first inning and was booed off the field when he left after three innings, as the Giants lost 4-2.

With one game left in the regular season, Zito will not pitch again and will thus finish a disappointing 9-14 with a 4.15 ERA. In his last 11 games, he was 1-8 with a 6.72 ERA.

Who would have thought, after such a promising 5-0 start?

But if you want to talk about hard luck, how about Colorado Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez?

At the All-Star break, Jimenez was the front-runner for the National League Cy Young with a 15-1 record and earned the start for the NL in the Midsummer Classic. When he was 10-1 with a 0.78 ERA after a 4-0 shutout over the Giants on May 31st, there was talk he was the second coming of Bob Gibson. (By then, he'd had six scoreless outings out of 11 starts.) He then gave up six runs, four runs, and seven runs, in three straight outings and his ERA went up to 2.27. Still, when he improved to 15-1 on July 8th, there was talk of 30 wins by season's end.

But Jimenez's season ended one win short of 20, as the Rockies lost 1-0 in St. Louis in 11 innings on Saturday. With the no-decision, he will finish 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA. Incredible. Only four wins in the second half?

As Jimenez himself said on Saturday, "Sometimes I pitched good and didn't get the runs and sometimes I got the runs and didn't pitch good. So it was kind of a crazy second half."

The Rockies pitcher, who pitched eight scoreless innings against the Cards, wanted to pitch the ninth, but manager Jim Tracy said no, according to Jimenez. "He [Tracy] was like, 'No, we're going to take care of you and it's not worth it,'" said Jimenez, referring to the fact his skipper didn't want to risk an injury. (Also, Felix Hernandez will not be pitching in the regular season finale for the Mariners on Sunday even though it will be his turn, because the Seattle management also doesn't want to risk their ace hurting his arm. Wonder what the old-school pitchers think about that, with teams babying their pitchers these days...)

Saturday's start was Jimenez's third attempt at win No. 20. He did his best, but the Rockies just couldn't score a run for him.

But what happened in the second half? If I told you Colorado would have a 10-game winning streak and Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez would enter the NL MVP discussion, you'd think Ubaldo would have at least 25 wins going into Saturday, right?

Sure, Ubaldo improved to 17-2 on August 4th win another win over San Francisco with the following line--7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 9 SO--but endured some hard luck after that:

August 10th: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 8 SO. Almost an identical linescore, but he actually lost 1-0 to the Mets in New York. Record: 17-3, despite his ERA dropping to 2.55.

August 15th: 8 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 10 SO against the Brewers. Not a great outing, but at least a quality start... but not good enough for a win. He got a no-decision.

August 21st: 6 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 3 SO against the last-place D'Backs in Arizona. A great start, but also a loss as Colorado went down to a 3-1 defeat. Record: 17-4, 2.66 ERA.

August 27th: 7 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 4 SO against the Dodgers. Another quality start, but another loss, with the Rockies dropping a 6-2 decision. Record: 17-5, 2.71.

September 1st: 8 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 10 SO against the Giants in San Fran. A complete game, a quality start, 10 strikeouts... but a 2-1 loss to Tim Lincecum. Record: 17-6, 2.69.

Sept. 6th: 6 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 6 BB, 8 SO against the first-place Reds... ugly numbers against the NL Central leaders... but surprisingly, a win! 10-5 over Cincinnati. Record: 18-6, 2.79.

Sept. 11th: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 SO against the D'Backs - but a no-decision as the Rockies won 2-1.

Sept. 17th: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 6 SO in L.A. against the Dodgers - a bad start, but another win, as Colorado was victorious, 7-5. Record: 19-6, 2.84.

Sept. 22nd: 4 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 6 SO in Arizona. Loss. Record: 19-7, 3.00.

Sept. 27th: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 6 SO against the Dodgers. Another quality start that ended up as a loss, with the Rockies losing 3-1. Record: 19-8, 2.99. Joe Torre and the Dodgers players said they wanted Ubaldo to win 20 games...but just not against them.

And then the tough no-decision Saturday in St. Louis, despite eight shutout innings. So, a 4-7 second half after that 15-1 beginning. He had 10 quality starts in the second half, enough to get him to 25 wins.

He didn't get there. He didn't even get to 20 wins, but he still broke the Rockies' single-season wins and strikeout records in 2010... small consolation prizes. He still pitched the first no-hitter in Colorado history, a 4-0 gem in Atlanta in April... but Roy Halladay, the probable Cy Young winner, topped him with a perfect game right after.

Jimenez had seven straight quality starts from July 29th to September 1st, but was only 2-4 in that span despite his 2.52 ERA. That's tough luck for you.

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